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央行:货币政策以控制通胀为主 兼顾转型发展和金融改革

摘要:中国央行今日发布工作论文,宣布货币政策以控制通胀为主,兼顾转型发展和金融改革;应尽快明确新的短端货币政策利率和目标水平;要进一步完善公开 ...



  五、结语

  作为与政策紧密相联的学科,现实的挑战始终是货币经济分析理论发展的最大动力。如果真正像“大萧条”和“滞胀”之后那样,经济理论取得飞跃式的进展,能够使我们更深刻地理解经济金融运行的机制,从而使经济更加平稳健康发展并有效避免金融危机冲击,那么“大衰退”所承受的巨大物质损失也就微不足道了。从经济学二百多年的经历来看,这可以说是“成长的烦恼”。当然,理论发展和政策实践的步伐并不完全一致,政策实践往往还要慢于应对现实挑战的理论进展。毕竟,按照Keynes(1936)的话说,“政策实践者(Practical Men)通常只是某些已故经济学家思想的奴隶”。不过,也正因如此,而且“最危险的不是既得利益,而是思想”,这就更要求我们学术界、决策层和市场参与者共同努力,跟踪理论的前沿并将其更好地应用于政策实践,以促进实现一个更美好的现实。

  同时,也要看到,中国的政策实践往往超前于理论发现。事实上,理论的发展是一个缓慢的过程,总是在现实的不断冲击下螺旋式上升,而且货币经济分析的所有现代主体几乎总能追寻到几十年甚至上百年或更久远的古老姻亲。中国的货币政策实践,对于全球金融危机后发达经济体的中央银行和货币经济理论发展,都具有非常重要的借鉴意义。不过,作为新兴发展中转轨经济体,中国的货币政策仍面临很多挑战。一方面,与发达经济体相比,中国中央银行的独立性仍

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  有待增强。加强中央银行在货币政策决策和操作等领域的自主权和独立性是二十多年来各国中央银行共同的经验。改革开放前,银行作为社会资金的出纳长期从属于计划和财政,现代意义的间接货币调控也仅有二十余年的时间(张晓慧,2015)。因而,中国的货币政策在宏观调控体系中处于相对弱势的地位且容易成为矛盾的焦点,金融功能财政化倾向仍未完全扭转,近期地方债务置换所体现的隐性干预就是直接例证。另一方面,我国宏观调控的制度框架仍待健全,尚未建立起符合社会主义市场经济需求、符合市场经济客观规律的宏观调控体系。目前我国的宏观调控体系仍然沿袭上世纪九十年代,货币政策和财政政策主要服务于产业政策和经济增长,缺少逆周期调控和宏观审慎管理的制度保障。也正因此,党的十八届五中全会才明确提出了“创新和完善宏观调控方式”的改革要求。另外,中央银行和金融监管部门有效协调机制的缺失也为货币调控增加了很大的难度。金融监管缺位、越位、失位现象普遍,尤其是在“封建式”监管格局下,监管与发展职能不分,经常出现“监管行为宏观调控化”的倾向。在金融机构公司治理不完善情况下,金融机构易于扩大规模,增加杠杆,最终倒逼中央银行救助,以致宏观不审慎。此外,中国货币政策一直承受着不可承受之重,在稳增长、防风险、调结构和促改革缝隙中运行,进一步提高货币政策调控效率,需要在政府与市场关系、国企改革、中央与地方财政关系、金融监管体系、宏观调控框架、微观主体公司治理等方面改革取得实质性进展。

  我们在通过全面深化改革努力克服各种挑战的同时,有必要及时总结中国货币政策调控的宝贵经验,将具有全球增长典型范例意义的中国模式提炼上升到具有普遍意义的理论高度。当然,更要清醒地认识到,即使是边际上的理论创新也是非常艰难的,而理论与现实的双重复杂性对决策者更是提出了巨大的挑战,这对所有研究者来说都是难能可贵的机遇。特别是,在中国经济进入新常态的当下,作为全球第二大经济体的理论工作者和中央银行研究人员,如何紧盯国际货币经济分析理论的最新进展,积极推进理论创新,在党中央国务院领导下,更好地服务货币决策,推动金融改革,通过学术繁荣深化供给侧结构性改革,成为我们共同的历史使命。

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